Conference Blog: Observer Event

The fringe highlight this evening is the Observer sponsored debate on Cameron's Tories. Andrew Rawnsley hosts (he's sat right in front of me now, surprisingly posh voice, perhaps I should have expected that?)

The format of this in unknown, I hear rumour that we're going to be joined by Peter Hain and William Hauge. I'll believe it when I see it, pictures to follow...

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Charles' Speech...

Has just started, the media pack is here, including Nick Robinson himself, front and centre in the pic.

Conference Blog: Charlie!

I'm currently sat in health questions, the session prior to Charles' speech, his first since our little bout of regicide earlier this year.

Things we probably won't hear the great man say:

- "My friend Sarah Teather..."

- "That budget wasn't worth responding to anyway"

- "I might have been pissed, but at least I have a pulse"

And now, a song (from the Liberator song book):

Speed bonnie boat,
Like a hack on the make;
Back to his seat on Skye.
Carry the lad that was born to be King,
Back to the seat on Skye.

Where is the man?
Down in the bar,
Loudly the Whips pro clai-aim.
Out on the town,
Out of his head,
Charlie is pissed again.

Conference Blog: Tony Benn

Sat in a very small Q & A on electoral reform with Tony Benn. He's as funny and articulate as you'd imagine, but I am learning an awful lot.

Tony considers himself a libertarian, and often now finds himself making some very unlikely alliances in the House of Lords with Consertatives. An example of a politician not allowing stigma or party politics get in the way of doing job. He also doesn't believe that one should sacrifice one's principles for power, so no wonder he never got on with Blair.

I wonder if he's met Nick Clegg?...

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Conference Blog: Nick Clegg

Just watching Nick Clegg speak for the second time today. His speech to conference was nothing short of superb, and now at a smaller fringe event he's done just as well.

Along with Chris Huhne and Julia Goldsworthy, Nick represents my great hope for the party. Not only these people smart, eloquent and empathetic, they're presentable, speak with passion and naturally engage with people. Where Cameron has stunts, we have substance, and the sooner these three are running the party the better.

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Conference Blog: Guardian Debate

Just at the Guardian debate listening to Norman Lamb, Simon Hoggart and Julia Goldsworthy. Norman suggests that Iain Dale's dislike of the Lib Debs is his fault, having handed Iain something of a beating in Norfolk last year.

Iain was polite enough at the Blogger's event last night, so we'll have to try harder next time...

Congrats to Stephen Tall on winning Lib Dem Blogger of the Year (on the old mobile so no links, google him!), and I'm delighted to say you're reading the 23rd best Lib Dem Blog.

Julia is speaking now, always worthy of my full attention...

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Conference Blog: Old Man Steptoe

In the 1970's a Prime Minister stopped the country going to the polls on the same night as Steptoe and Son was on the TV. Such was the popularity of the show that he thought that the Labour voters would stay at home and cost him his re-election.

The power of the media is well documented but who could have thought that we would have suddenly be thrown back 30 odd years...

Astute and savy as ever our leader has picked up on the popularity of said show, deciding to appeal to the 70's generation by taking on the persona of Old Man Steptoe.

This theory was born from a photo on the front cover of "House" magazine, where he does bear more than a likeness to old Wilfrid.

The result? We're now sat in the "Green Switch" rally, certain that we can hear yells from behind the stage of "Elspeth...Elspeth... I do have a bath Elspeth, every Christmas eve, whether I need one or not".

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Conference Blog: Sleepy Sunday Morning

It's Sunday morning & Brighton is just waking up. Yesterday was a funny day, with very few people here and the conference not really starting. We did however, have a good chat to Ed Davey MP (top bloke). Ed is overseeing the party's national campaigns strategy, and I shall do my best to be at his presentation tomorrow.

Alex Foster is podcasting from conference and asked me yesterday if I had any amusing Risograph stories. As Alex more or less helped me lose my Riso virginity only a month ago, I don't, so his search goes on.

More later today from Vince Cable and our first fringe Disco. Oh yes!

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Conference Blog: Not a good start.

So, here I am at Conference registration. Complete disaster.

Half of the delegates haven't had the informaton packs delivered, so everyone who has registered needs to queue and have their name ticked off a list (one word, database!).
You are then given a raffle ticket of seemingly random colour to exchange for a pack. Longwinded.

Now, here's the best bit. People who haven't registered in advance go through the normal process (forms, photo etc) and obviously don't have an information pack. So, they then have to go *BACK TO THE START* for raffle ticket collection to get one. But their name's aren't on the paper list. Spot the problem?

And we want to run the country...

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Political thought for the day

The smart money is on a hung Parliament after the next election. If John Prescott gets the job, it'd be a not-very-well-hung Parliament?

More serious blogging later in my pre-conference rant.

The world is full of liars, cheats and swindlers

I've been bloody busy at work this week, hence less blogging than usual. Imagine the state of my depression to then spend this lunch time reading the usual haunts only to be faced with some of the worst examples or corruption, hypocrisy and slimy behavior I think I've seen.

Firstly, the Daily Mail is calling for a woman who falsely accused a man of rape to be named. Fair enough in itself, but this is the same paper that one can't pick up without hearing how terrible life is for those trying to prosecute crime. and how the courts are biased towards defendants, and how anyone accused of anything should be locked up for at least 90 days. On most issues, you wouldn't think they believed that miscarriages of justice actually happened at all.

Also, it was their campaign that got the current law introduced, now they say it has "gone to far". They're right in principle, but the two-faced approach is a disgrace.

Next, Patricia Hewitt admits that the NHS has paid iSoft, the main supplier for the new IT system, over £80m in up front payments, despite having previously denied doing so. These payments have all arrived just in the nick of time, and have the kept the business (which is now way down the shitter) afloat.  They've used our money to bail out a private business to save their own skins.

Last but not least. Tony Blair once again has his minions saying what he actually thinks so as now to upset George. I need a good lie down.

Same old Tory nonsense

Despite our mate Dave's best efforts, it seems that the readers of Conservative Home are stuck somewhere between the primordial soup and the bad part of the dark ages. Read the below, posted on an article about prision places, and weep at "the next Government".

Mandatory execution for many offences including various varieties of execution with torture to ensure that punishment was proportionate to the offences committed would reduce the number of extra places neccessary, if execution was mandatory for Murder, Rape, Manslaughter, Crimes under the Prevention of Terrorism Act, Breaching National Security, Theft\Fraud and\or damage to property amounting to in excess of £1m, writing computer viruses and for attempting to without a licence sell alcohol or Hard Drugs and all convicted paedophiles then that would reduce numbers significantly and with a substantial increase in prison numbers allow for very strict dealing with what currently are classified as minor criminals such as muggers, burglars and people involved in shoplifting, vandalism and other immoral activities.

Execution for writing computer viruses? Only a Tory could take a subject they clearly know so little about and scream from the hills about it. He'll be telling me the Internet is a series of tubes next.

Blair *has not* agreed to stand down as PM!

A common misconception is that the Prime Minister is the leader of the ruling party. He's (or She's) not, they are appointed by the Queen. Today, Tony Blair agreed that the next Labour Party conference would be his last as leader but he said nothing about standing down as PM.

As Guido Fawkes comments, this is the Aznar option.

Labour are fools if they think Brown is the answer, and Brown is a fool for letting them

As I write this, we're still waiting for Mr Blair's much-feted announcement that he won't be Prime Minister in a year's time. His gut instinct might be to hang on for as long as possible, but there appears to be another game on the Downing Street chess board, it's called "How best to bugger Gordon". Should be fun to watch.

I know Labour, and I know Labour people, both supporters and politicians. They've more or less convinced themselves, to a man, that its all Blair's fault and that Brown is some sort of left-wing prodigal son.

Let's nail this once and for all. He's not.

Gordon Brown has been a good chancellor, but a lucky one. He inherited an economic recovery and has done well to not bugger it up, that's all. He is also the key architect of New Labour's "third way" and all that comes with it. He supports PFI, Foundation Hospitals, Trust Schools, invading Iraq, and every other thing that "Blair" has done since 1997, in fact, most of them were his idea.

So the perceived wisdom now, that he will represent a quantum shift in the approach of the Government, is nonsense. Domestically there are no radically new ideas in the Labour Party (after nearly 10 years in Government they've simply run out of them), and the foreign policy he will inherit is a shit sandwich. Can he withdraw from Iraq or Afghanistan? Not without alienating many, many allies, which would not be a smart first move. Can he distance himself from George Bush? Yes, he probably can a little bit, in public, but if he intends to be PM for more than 5 minutes he has to contemplate the fact that a Republican, probably one of Bush's close aides, might be the next US President. Say what you like about the Americans, but we have to be on speaking terms at least. 

Brown has all of Blair's character flaws. He's a control freak, he refuses to listen to the most basic criticism and only takes advice from a tiny group of close friends. What's worse however, he lacks Blair's charm and charisma. I think you can count on the fingers of one hand the times I've agreed with the Prime Minister, but I still, begrudgingly, still quite like him (God knows why) and Brown doesn't have that.

Gordon Brown is, it appears, pressing for TB to go this year. This means that it is Brown who will be on the arse end of the most colossal kicking in next May's local elections. This is political folly of the highest order, and only someone wrought with frustration and with an almost pathological obsession with power would do such a thing. Blair should let him have is cake and watch him choke on it, along with the Labour MPs (most of whom are only there because of Blair anyway) who have entered cloud cuckoo land where it's all Tony's fault.

How many of those MPs voted for the Iraq war, or for trust schools, or for yet another piece of Whitehall centralisation? A truck load of them did, and shame on them for now hiding behind the Prime Minister, when it's their own policies that the people despise.

Morning Stories 06/09

The End is Nigh for Blair

Brown is demanding  public timetable for his departure say The Guardian. Nothing like trust amongst old friends...

The Sun is sticking up for TB. Friends in high places Tony?

Blair's agent demands an "open leadership contest". The next week will no doubt see the birth of a new wing of the Labour Party, ABB - Anyone But Brown.

A new "hypothetical" poll shows that the electorate don't care who is the next Labour leader, but that Ming Campell isn't exactly wowing the crowds either.

Blogroll

The EU's "one seat" campaign gathers pace, sign the petition today on Liberal Legend.

Recess Monkey is being somewhat mean about Sarah Teather. Sort of puts you off being an MP a little doesn't it?

The very fluffy elephant has no time for Dave's trip to India.

Betting on Blair's exit

I saw this morning for the first time that Betfair have a market on when Blair will finally quit as PM. Most of us have an interest in this, so before deciding where to stick my £5, I thought I'd look at the available options in detail.

July - Sep 2006. Odds: 39/1. Unlikely to say the least. Unless the "letter" is signed by more MPs that we imagine, he's unlikely to quit this month.

Oct - Dec 2006. Odds: 4/1. This would require an announcement at the Party conference, which we've been warned won't be forthcoming, so again, unlikely. I think the odds of 4/1 are a mug's bet, a 25% chance of him quiting this year? I think not.

Jan - Mar 2007. Odds: 13/2. Now we're getting to the juicy bits. Will he go before the local elections? The "leaked" memo talked about a"wave of euphoria", which might be tricky even for the spin-Meister himself after Labour get kicked from one end of the country to the other next May. So this one is a fairly good bet, and why the odds are longer than for Dec 2006 is beyond me. Plus, Blair would like nothing more than to be sat on a Caribbean beach watching Brown be on the end of the greatest electoral disaster since Robert Kilroy Silk.

April - June 2007. Odds: 7/2. This is the Betfair market's favorite, and I can see why. Labour get the aforementioned kicking and in a rare fit of bravery the usually spineless New Labour Parliamentarians kick out The Great Leader (tm). Obviously to go this far you have to believe that Blair wants to handle next May's elections.

July - Sep 2007. Odds: 7/2. Makes a sort of sense. Bad May elections, Blair quits in time for a Tory style "beauty contest" at the 2007 Autumn conference. Requires Blair to be chivalrous to his potential successors, but is also bad for Brown by making a good contest almost inevitable.

Oct - Dec 2007. Odds: 9/2. This one makes no sense, for reasons I'll explain below.

January 2008 Onwards. Odds: 7/2. Now, but your betting hats on. This option is the joint favorite, yet instead of giving you a 3 month window like the others, it covers you until the end of time. Think about it. What you're saying here is that there is a 25% chance that TB will still be in Number 10 by January 2008. In reality, that chance is about 50% (there is a 25% chance he'll die of old age clinging to the door frame) which makes this one by far the smartest choice. Plus, one must remember that fundamentally, the Labour Party lack the balls to kick Blair out (he got most of them elected), so he'll pick when he goes, and would you give up the most powerful job your ever going to have?

Read it and weep Brownites, the big guy is here for a good while yet.

More A-List Absurdity

Those of you who enjoy laughing at the madness that is the A-List will enjoy this.

The Tories have added Rehman Chishti to the list of golden boys & girls in the latest top-up. Nothing special in that you might think, except this is the same Rehman Chishti who stood for Labour against Tory Chairman Francis Maude at the last election.

He's been a Tory for about 5 minutes, and they've elevated him above thousands of local activists straight onto the elite list, no doubt to be dropped into a seat so safe a blue monkey could win it. Any they wonder why they couldn't fill a taxi with people from outside London to help at the Bromley by-election?

To say that this will de-motivate Tory activists is something of an understatement. All parties need to examine why proportionately fewer women want to be MPs, or why those that do are not being selected, rather than rigging the system to exclude all heterosexual white men. When will they learn?

More vitriol from real Tories at Conservative Home.

Stories of the Morning - 05/09

Labour heading for local poll wipeout - According to the Indie, Labour may well get a good kicking in next May's local elections unless Blair steps down soon. The first bit is correct, the second is irrelavent.

Blair to go out "with the crowds wanting more" - The Guardian, amongst others, reports on a leaked Memo from the Blair Bunker. Apparently, a "wave of euphoria" will be generated, allowing Blair to go out on a high. The emporers new clothes are looking lovely today.

The web overflows with tributes to Steve Irwin, Crocodile Hunter. - People I know are quite divided on this, but I can't shake the feeling that the world is a less exciting place than it was this time last week. Bless ya, Steve.

Whilst reading the blair memo story, a thought occured (always worth recording). How many New Labour MPs have convinced themselves that Blair is the problem, rather than Iraq, Trust Schools or PFI? All policies Gordon Brown supports!

Bloglinks

Tim Worstall on some eye-watering corruption in Italy

If Dave insists on not wearing a shirt, he should get some miles on the treadmill.

Prison works

Just watching a Newsnight piece on the Danish Prison System. It's liberal, focused on rehabilitation and brings some quite amazing results, with a reoffending rate half ours.

It's not all sweetness and light of course, but there are some real lessons for the bang-em-up brigade.

As well as rambling on here I'm also a dictrict councillor in Hucknall, a hard working Nottinghamshire town. We have crime, for example at the moment I'm helping a church that is vandalised almost every night. It is so easy to feel anger for the people that do these things, and then to want to punish them. However the point of the criminal justice system is to reduce crime. The Danish system does that better than ours does, simple as that.

Headline of the day

Courtesy of today's Metro.

Fun run piddle pervert bagged by a big banana

Genius. I did always say the Metro was piss-poor.

Clean power? Heath Robinson!

I'm having one of those days when one part of my life totally dominates the others, today's oppressor being work and the victims being politics and writing. So, I can't be arsed to write anything remotely serious about the very serious fossil fuel protests we saw today. I do, however, offer a solution to all our energy problems, courtesy of Mr Heath Robinson.